Miljövärderingsanalys/Environmental evaluation

II. Conjoint analysis as a decision tool for evaluation of environmental performance for instance of experts and consumers preferences

Project leader: Tomas Öberg, University of Kalmar

Introduction
The evaluation of environmental performance and the choices between alternative solutions is a complex process. In the decision-making process, many different and often unrelated attributes are considered. Different indexes and scaling systems have been developed, but such approaches often suffer from the fact that the respondents have substantial difficulty in correctly separating and describing/scaling their preferences towards isolated attributes, e.g. toxicity, energy consumption and cost.

It has been realised that more and more of environmental evaluations rely on preferences among various groups of stakeholders, and also experts. A limited number publications have now appeared describing the use of conjoint analysis in "green product development", evaluation of ecosystem change, consumer preferences to environmentally certified products, public preferences to industrial projects and environmental policy development . The potential for using conjoint analysis in the evaluation of steel products and manufacturing methods is thus promising. What makes this approach particularly interesting in the proposed research programme is that the same technique can be used in all parts. It would then also be possible to fuse together the different groups of stakeholders (experts, developers and users).

This project starts with a well-defined and proven technique for analysis of preferences. Conjoint analysis have however not been applied in integrated projects, the experience from the environmental arena is limited and the evaluation methods can be developed further. The project will provide a synthesis of the current knowledge, but also develop new methodology specifically designed to support the research programme and the future needs of the steel industry.

Goals

General
This subproject aim at providing a method and tools for evaluation and ranking of environmental preferences among experts, product designers, consumers and other stakeholders towards steel products and manufacturing processes.

Industrial

To deliver methods for environmental valuation of processes and products in the steel eco-cycle.

Environmental

To estimate the environmental values of the programme and individual project targets by assessment from different groups of experts and stakeholders.

Work plan
The basic hypothesis is that stakeholder preferences can be integrated into product design and process development by using conjoint analysis of preferences. The project will provide an answer, by synthesis of current knowledge, application of methodology within the programme and case studies. Results from these case studies will be directly presented back to the different groups of stakeholders. We thereby hope to get an interesting interaction and dynamic effects that can be further explored, as the research programme proceeds.

A secondary hypothesis is that conjoint analysis can be further developed using bilinear data analysis and graphical presentation of results as preference maps. The project will investigate this potential by reviewing existing bilinear methods, and by applying these techniques to preference data from the conjoint studies.

During 2005 a review of the current publications and literature, concerning conjoint analysis applied to environmental issues, will be made. This review was submitted in early 2006 for scientific publication. We have also made a conference contribution to the Kalmar ECO-TECH' 05, November 28-30, 2005, published in the proceedings.

During 2006 a methodology has been developed to facilitate multi-objective decision making, using conjoint analysis and multivariate analysis of the test-results. The proposed method has been evaluated in a pilot survey to validate the questionnaires and the proposed multivariate analysis technique applied to the conjoint method. The methodology developed has also been applied in a case study of steel production processes (selected by the steering committee). Results have been presented at the annual meeting of the Society for Risk Analysis in Baltimore, December 2006 and also at the SRA UK chapter in Nottingham, September 2007. A journal paper is planned for submission in 2007.

During 2007 the main study has commenced, where attitudes (preferences) towards different environmental impacts deriving from use of steel products are being assessed. This case study is focusing on the environmental objectives from the Steel eco-cycle research programme. The study group consists of people within and outside of the industry, both those working with environmental issues as well as producers and users of steel products. Results from this study will be presented at the Eco-Tech' 07 in November 2007 and will also be developed into a journal manuscript with planned submission by the end of 2007. During the spring of 2008 a licentiate thesis will be prepared to summarize and present the major findings from this subproject within the research programme. The thesis defence (seminar) is planned for April 2008.

Deliverables for 2004-2008
The scope of this subproject is to develop a methodology to evaluate environmental performance of steel products and manufacturing processes based on preferences among expert panels, development teams and stakeholders. Results will be directly presented to and implemented in the research programme. Results will also be presented in a licentiate thesis, scientific papers and conference presentations. The methodology will be implemented in undergraduate education. During the first programme period the major portion of the deliverables are scientific. The user deliverables are a project report, contribution to programme synthesis and presentations at various conferences in Sweden. The project is assumed to continue and later be completed with a PhD-thesis, during the second programme period.

Deliverables for 2004-2005

R & D acitvities

Status

Literature review
Literature study of available conjoint studies concerning environmental issues

The initial results and framing of scientific issues was presented at an international conference; the Kalmar Eco-Tech 051128 - 051130.·
A review on the state-of-the-art for the use of conjoint analysis in environmental research and similar application areas has been prepared. Results will be reported in a scientific journal paper, which was submitted in 2006.
This review provide the basis for future research and define some of the unexplored research issues in need of further study, e.g. evaluation of conjoint data by bilinear methods and visualisation of results for interactive risk communication.

Training of research student

Training of research student in multivariate data analysis

Completed by December 2005

Deliverables for 2006

R & D acitvities	Status
Pilot study The aim of the pilot study is to investigate the use of conjoint analysis in the current research setting. The experiences and conclusions drawn from the pilot study will facilitate the design of the main study.	A pilot study has been made covering some of the main environmental effects from the production of steel. Three groups of respondents participated; students from the University of Kalmar, participants in the Steel Eco-Cycle programme, and representatives of the public. The preliminary results indicate that the emission of dioxins is considered to be an environmental problem where measures for reduction are given high priority. Precedence was also given to the economising of non-renewable energy and other non-renewable resources. The preference structure was surprisingly consistent and similar between the different groups of respondents. However, the programme participants seem to rank the dioxin issue somewhat less and energy savings and carbon dioxide emissions somewhat higher compared to the students and the public. The results have been reported at the annual meeting of the Society for Risk Analysis (www.sra.org), in Baltimore, USA, December 3-6, 2006. The results will also be reported in a scientific journal paper.
Communication of research Research findings should be communicated also outside of the scientific realm.Visualisation of preferences and interactive communication with respondents are research questions of primary interest for the project.	The results from the pilot study were presented at "Forskarfredag", a European project aiming at demonstrating ongoing research to the public. (www.forskarfredag.se). Lectures have been held in experimental design and conjoint analysis for students from the programme "Environmental Design and Management" using the Steel Eco-Cycle as an application example. Initial tests of the risk communication approach, with interaction between respondents and the analysis team, were made with the programme participants at a seminar and with the public at "Forskarfredag".
Training of research student In the training of a research student, courses comprising a minimum of 20 university credits are mandatory for the degree of "philosophies licentiate", Ph. Lic.	The research student has completed compulsory courses in research ethics, literature searching and presentation technique, giving a total of four university credits. Apart from the compulsory courses, training in conjoint analysis method and experimental design has been started.

Deliverables for 2007

R & D activities	Status
Make a base-line LCA/LCC model for second case study including documentation.	The second case study was withdrawn during the second half of 2006. Consequently this task has not been commenced. Project 88044 will use a couple of separate case studies.
Implement the work in a software prototype to demonstrate the software tool concept	All modules of the base-line model, including ore-and scrap-based steel making, have been implemented. The flows through the modules can be simulated via a user interface. For each module (step of the steel cycle) resource consumption, waste generation and emissions can be assessed and utilised for LCA-based environmental assessments. Data from different scenarios can be compared and displayed as graphs.For a fully operational prototype a number of measures are still required, such as implementation of modules describing the newly developed processes of the steel cycle, testing/debugging, supplementing LCI data for waste handling and transports, and addition of tools for cost estimates. However, the work has been suspended during 2007 on instructions from the programme management.
Refine evaluation for projects 88020 and 88031 based on first and second case study and further information from the projects. A calculation base for evaluation of the projects environmental value is examined by the project group .The final work is calculated for the end of 2007, because lack of freely data for commercial production of eg ferrovanadium from ore.	A calculation base for evaluation of the projects environmental value is examined by the project group .The final work is calculated for the end of 2007, because lack of freely data for commercial production of eg ferrovanadium from ore.
Make a draft evaluation of further projects based on the first and second case study. The selection of projects will be based on the availability of necessary data, i.e. based on the progress in the projects, since this has shown to be the major limitation during the first two years.	All project in the programme will be inventored Calculation base and data is frequently discussed with the project managements.The environmental assessment is successively build up and will be summarised for each project next year.

Deliverables for 2008

R & D activities	Status
Conclusion and refinement of the evaluations of the projects.
Final report.

Fragmentering
/Shredding
... är en teknik som används för sönderdelning av skrot innan det smälts om till nytt stål. Genom att utveckla tekniken att finfördela skrotet kan variationerna i dess samman-sättning minskas och dess densitet ökas. Detta innebär att stålindustrin vid omsmältning av skrotet kan reducera både sitt elbehov och sina utsläpp av koldioxid.
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Laseranalys
/Laser analysis
... är en teknik som nu utvecklas för snabb bestämning av skrotets metallinnehåll. Stålindustrin väntas här få tillgång till en teknologi som kan komma att reducera behovet av jungfruliga metaller vid användning av skrot för tillverkning av nytt stål.
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Skrotflödet i samhället
/Recycling of steel
... är trots den höga återvinningsgraden föga dokumenterat. Med bättre kunskaper skapas förutsättningar för ökad återvinning och bättre styrning av skrotsorter för optimerad skrot-användning. Stålindustrin får möjlighet att effektivisera sin energianvänd-ning, stora ekonomiska värden tas till vara och miljöbelastningen minskar.
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Ytrening av skrot
/Surface cleaning of scrap
... är en teknik som skall bredda användningen av färg- och metallbelagt skrot som råvara till ett ökat antal stålsorter. För stålindustrin innebär användning av ytrenat och förvärmt skrot att både energi-användning och koldioxidutsläpp kan reduceras. Dessutom kan den avdrivna zinkbeläggningen komma att återanvändas inom zinkindustrin.
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Vanadinutvinning
/Recovery of Vanadium
Det finns låga halter av vanadin i svensk järnmalm. Genom utveckling av metoder för utvinning av vanadinet får en redan exploaterad naturresurs ett ökat miljövärde.
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Ökat metallutbyte vid smältning av stål/New melting processes EAF
... är teoretiskt möjligt genom metallurgisk manipulering under smältförloppet. Målet är att skapa sådana förhållanden att metaller överförs till stålet i stället för till slaggen. Detta innebär minskat behov av jungfruliga metaller, samtidigt som slaggen kan ges nya användnings-områden.
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Återvinning av slagg
/New slag systems EAF
... är tekniskt möjligt genom utveckling av nya metoder för lakning av olika metaller ur slagger, t.ex vanadin, och behandling av slagger så de kan användas som t.ex isoleringsmaterial eller cementråvara. Vissa slagger kan också användas som ny slaggbildare i stålprocessen, vilket minskar behovet av ny kalk. Återvinning av slagg miinskar både behovet av deponering och förbrukningen av nya naturresurser vid ståltillverkningen.
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Bevarande av alla ämnen i skrotet
/Tolerance of recycled elements
... är en teoretisk studie som skall söka klarlägga hur dessa kan nyttjas för att ge den färdiga stålproduktens önskade egenskaper. Om sådan "självlegering" blir praktisk möjlig kan de metalliska ämnen som finns i skrotet, och som normalt avlägsnas i processen, bevaras i det nya stålet. Detta innebär att förlusten av metaller ur stålets kretslopp kan reduceras.
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Nya höghållfasta stålprodukter
/Optimisation of hot rolling
... är ett forskningsprojekt som skall identifiera de processparametrar som vid värmning och valsning har störst inverkan på materialegenskaperna. De nya rönen kan ge stålindustrin möjligheter att med ökad precision framställa nya avancerade stålsorter och samtidigt minska förbrukningen av fossila bränslen.
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Metoder för lättare stålkonstruktioner
/High strength steel structures
...ska för avancerade höghållfasta stål utmynna i att stålets egenskaper kopplas till produkternas användning och återvinning ur ett livscykelperspektiv. Genom denna metodutveckling kan stål-, bygg- och verkstadsindustrin få nya infallsvinklar på användandet av stål som både kan minska behovet av jungfruliga metaller och reducera emissionerna vid såväl tillverkning som användning av produkterna.
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Miljövärderingsanalyser
/Environmental evaluation

I. Methodology for evaluation of environmental impact
...ska påvisa Stålkretsloppets miljövärde med beaktande av ekologiska, tekniska och sociala faktorer. Miljövärderingar ger forskare, industri, användare och samhället i övrigt möjlighet att värdera såväl stålets nytta för miljön som dess belastning på miljön ur ett livscykelperspektiv. En metod som gör miljövärderingar tillgängliga för objektiva beslut.
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II. Conjoint analysis as a decision tool for evaluation of environmental performance of for instance experts and consumers preferences
... tar fram en metod för att mäta olika experters och andra intressenters attityder till och värdering av komplexa miljöfrågor.
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